Surfing

Is there any correlation between warmer or colder ocean waters and bigger waves? What is the influence of temperature on wave height?

When we think about power swells, meteorologists and surf forecasters look into the intensity of low-pressure systems on large oceanic fetches.

Then, they track waves generated thousands of miles from the coastlines and follow their energy-gathering pattern as swells travel toward the shores.

The intensity, duration, and area over which wind blows over the water's surface will dictate the power of a groundswell.

Nevertheless, these are only the essential wave train formation variables.

The existence, for instance, of an underwater canyon near the coastline can then dramatically boost the size of near-shore breaking waves.

One of the best examples is Nazaré's Praia do Norte, where local bathymetry plays a critical role in creating XXL waves.

Poles vs. Equator

But what happens when water temperatures increase?

Is there a difference in wave size or behavior in warmer climates where you can surf without a wetsuit?

Does a wave pool in England perform differently from one in Abu Dhabi? What exactly is the influence of temperature on the life of a wave?

When we look at the map of the world's biggest waves, there's not enough statistically relevant data we can extract to reach a conclusion.

Yes, there are big-wave surfing spots near the Equator line - Jaws/Peahi and Puerto Escondido - but we also have other extreme surf breaks closer to the poles - Mullaghmore Head and Shipstern Bluff.

Also, because of their different surrounding environments and bathymetric characteristics, it's impossible to establish any conclusion or correlation.

Temperature and Density

The only option is to ask science, and the answers are pretty straightforward.

When water undergoes heating, it expands, increasing in volume.

In other words, the greater the water's temperature, the larger the space it occupies, leading to a decrease in its density.

On the other hand, lowering the temperature of water reduces molecular motion, causing molecules to come closer together and occupy a smaller volume, resulting in an elevation of density.

The conclusion is that heated water is lighter than the same volume of cold water.

What about speed/velocity? Does warm water travel faster than cold water?

Does hot water move faster than cold water?

Oliver M. Sun, an oceanographer at the Naval Undersea Warfare Center in Newport, Rhode Island, says it does.

The researcher wrote on the Physics Forum, "The speed of a wave in water is directly proportional to the temperature of the water."

"As temperature increases, the speed of the wave also increases."

"This is because warmer water molecules have more energy and can vibrate faster, causing the wave to travel faster."

Sun notes that "as temperature increases, the wavelength of a wave in water decreases because the speed of the wave increases, but its frequency remains constant."

"This results in a shorter wavelength."

Nevertheless, temperature is not a primary, critical factor in wave velocity.

The speed of water flow is mostly determined by external factors such as the force applied (wind or a wave pool pump), the slope of the surface it is flowing on (sandbanks or reefs), depth, and any obstacles in its path (rocks or islands).

It's worth noting that hot water can appear to flow faster than cold water under certain conditions due to differences in viscosity and density.

Hot water generally has lower viscosity and density than cold water, which means it may flow more easily.

You can witness it, for instance, by observing the flow of liquids in pipes or containers.

Global Warming and XXL Wave Events

Now that we've confirmed that warm water has more volume, occupies more space, and moves faster when compressed than cold water, it's time to dissect the impact of temperature on wave height.

The study of this combination of variables could help weather forecasters and surfers learn more about the ocean's behavior.

However, this unique relationship has never quite been the focus of attention and research from the scientific community.

Never - until recently.

Interestingly, the correlation between warmer world oceans and an increase in wave height is only indirect.

First, let's understand why it is not direct.

"The amplitude of a wave in water is not affected by temperature," Sun stresses.

"Amplitude is determined by the amount of energy that the wave carries, which is not affected by temperature."

"However, changes in temperature can affect the height of waves, which is a measure of their amplitude."

"This is because changes in temperature can cause changes in wind patterns, which can result in larger or smaller waves."

Precisely.

In 2019, Borja G. Reguero, an associate professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz, released the conclusions of a study titled "A recent increase in global wave power as a consequence of oceanic warming."

The study analyzed a potential correlation between the evolution of wave power in the world's oceans and global sea surface temperature from 1948 to 2008.

The results indicate that both variables are strongly correlated.

"The effect of climate change in oceanic warming has been increasing the global energy transferred from winds to the waves represented in the GWP," Reguero concluded.

"The impact of climate warming on the wave climate can therefore be seen in the energy transported by the waves, measured through the global wave power as a long-term signal of climate change."

In other words, the increase of surface sea water temperature results in stronger winds, which in turn mean bigger and longer waves.

Siqi Yang is the first Chinese surfer to qualify for the Olympic Games. The 15-year-old will represent her country in Paris 2024 at Teahupoo.

It's China's best-ever result in an official international surfing competition.

Yang finished the 2024 ISA World Surfing Games in 15th place among over 110 female surfers and secured a historical Olympic ticket.

But the remarkable story of Siqi goes back to 2022.

In a surprising turn of events, China started emerging as a rising force in the world of surfing at the 2022 ISA World Surfing Games in Huntington Beach, California.

The youthful Chinese surfers, led by the then 13-year-old sensation Yang Siqi, shattered expectations and captured the attention of international media.

Traditionally, surfing powerhouses such as Brazil, Australia, the USA, and Japan have dominated the scene.

However, China's remarkable performance at the ISA World Surfing Games signals a potential shift in the sport's landscape.

At the time, Yang, the youngest member of the Chinese team, etched her name in history by reaching the fifth repechage round, finishing an impressive 29th.

Under the guidance of South African coach Wade Sharp, the Chinese team formed in 2018 and showed exceptional dedication and progress in a short period.

Sharp, who previously coached Team Japan at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, saw immense potential in the Chinese surfers, predicting future success on the global stage.

"They're very dedicated to their sports, and they take their training seriously," Sharp told the Olympic channel.

"I think a few years down the road, you're going to see China right up in the top earning medals, just like all the other countries."

Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which limited their training opportunities abroad, the Chinese surfers displayed remarkable adaptability.

Siqi Yang started surfing in 2018 when she was just nine years old.

"I was so scared about it at the very beginning, but after getting through that period, surfing has made me pretty happy."

Siqi's dedication and fearlessness in competition caught the eye of Coach Sharp, who noted she has a "super rad future."

In 2022, China's surfing head coach Wang Xiaofei set its sights on the long-term goal of making a mark at the Los Angeles 2028 Olympics.

"Our goal for LA 2028 will be ranking into the top 8 of the Olympic Games," he stated at the time.

A Stellar Performance in Margara

However, the Chinese surfing dreams arrived a bit earlier, and the Asian nation will be represented in Tahiti's Teahupoo.

The year 2023 was a rehearsal for the upcoming surprise with a 31st finish at the ISA World Surfing Games among more than 120 women surfers.

In 2024, 15-year-old Siqi Yang stepped up her game.

In Round 2 of the World Surfing Games, the Chinese wonder kid beat two-time WSL champion and two-time ISA World Junior champion Tyler Wright.

Yang excelled in the waves of Puerto Rico's Margara with a powerful performance and one of the best single turns of the day.

"This is my first time surfing Margara," the young Chinese gun said.

"Before the event, it was totally flat, so we were surfing El Pico. This wave is amazing, and I just went with the flow."

"For me, I just keep a low profile to try and learn from the experience of surfing with a two-time world champion. Puerto Rico is beautiful. The waves are amazing."

Yang progressed through to Women's Repechage Round 7, where she was able to validate the ticket to the Summer Olympics in Tahiti.

"The Olympic dream is my dream, to qualify for the Olympics," concluded Yang.

"I'm super happy, super excited to accomplish this today. Thanks to my country for supporting me in getting here and to my coach for bringing me to this level. I'm so happy. I've been training so hard for this."

SurfZone AI is the new cutting-edge coastal surveillance and analysis product offered by the veteran ocean monitoring and surf forecasting company Surfline.

With a legacy spanning 35 years, Surfline has evolved from catering to surfers and beach enthusiasts with live condition monitoring to providing a comprehensive suite of services through SurfZone AI.

The new service Surfline\Wavetrak, Inc. aims to address a new market using the mother company's data science, machine learning, and camera installation knowledge.

The project has been collecting data labeled since 2019 at a rate of 24 billion frames of video per year.

This data allows for very specific analysis and outputs on paddling versus sitting time, tracking crest and trough to determine wave height, lifeguard coverage needs, etc.

But what exactly does this new venture make available to its customers? Are you about to witness the Big Brother of Surfing watching all over the surfing community?

Camera Installation and Management

SurfZone AI provides full-service camera installation and management, deploying high-quality 1080p-4K weatherproof CCTV cameras.

The system boasts internet connectivity, remote reboot, and control features, maintaining an uptime of over 98 percent globally.

With permanent staff strategically located in the US, UK, and Australia, the project manages installations worldwide, including diverse locations such as Costa Rica, Morocco, Portugal, and Indonesia.

People Counting and Beach Monitoring

A patented solution for accurate people counting on the sand and in the water sets SurfZone AI apart.

The system utilizes a network of beach cameras, independently verified for accuracy.

Lifeguarding organizations, local governments, state parks, universities, and more across three continents leverage SurfZone AI's technology for beach monitoring and risk analysis.

Surfer Tracking and Wave Monitoring

SurfZone AI's capabilities extend to tracking surfers and recreational water users, providing detailed data on amenity usage.

The system can identify ridden waves, paddling, sitting, surfing, and wading, offering high-frequency time series data, heat maps, and aggregate statistics.

Additionally, the platform excels in wave monitoring, delivering precise measurements such as wave heights and periods, breaking estimated bathymetry, and other wave statistics for the surf zone.

Predictive Modeling and Environmental Monitoring

SurfZone AI employs physical ocean modeling and machine learning to predict various parameters in the short or long term.

The platform's environmental monitoring extends beyond waves to include comprehensive forecasts and predictions for footfall and other relevant parameters.

Data Visualization and Analysis

The SurfZone AI platform also promises to shine in visualizing data and creating interactive heat maps.

With cloud-based data warehousing, the system ensures secure storage and backup while providing users access to data in bulk or near real-time via a modern API.

The in-house data science team offers bespoke analysis and research services, updating models, detecting different parameters, and providing detailed risk modeling.

How SurfZone AI Works

The core of SurfZone AI lies in its custom machine-learning algorithm designed for small object detection.

Trained on a vast archive of coastal imagery from a network of over 1,000 beach cameras, this algorithm outperforms generic object detection models.

It understands and segments scenes at the pixel level, enabling detailed data derivation on various aspects of the surf zone environment.

Also, risk models and extended analysis face a susceptibility to inaccuracies in detecting false negatives.

In instances where the camera encounters obscurities like fog, rain, dirt, or obstructions, the proprietary model recognizes these issues and marks the associated data as unreliable.

The system addresses challenges related to occlusion, where individuals may be concealed by waves or each other, by employing a date-led statistical averaging over time, combined with high frame rate analysis.

SurfZone AI could also be useful in surf economics research and coastal management.

How much of the new surf-oriented machine learning technology will be channeled to business and consumer markets is something time will tell.

How are surfers distributed in heats? Can two top-ranked athletes match up against each other in the opening round of a contest? Here's how seeding works in the Championship Tour (CT).

The World Surf League (WSL) introduced a new competition format in the 2019 CT.

The goal was to fine-tune an athlete's past achievements while simultaneously rewarding performance in a running season.

Seeding is the process of assigning a rank or position to a surfer based on their previous achievements or current performance.

Seeding aims to create a structured bracket or draw for the surf competitions, ensuring that higher-seeded athletes are initially paired against lower-seeded ones, theoretically providing a more balanced and competitive progression throughout the event.

In modern competitive professional surfing, each elite surf contest features the following stages:

• Seeding Round;
• Elimination Round;
• Round of 32;
• Round of 16;
• Quarterfinals;
• Semifinals;
• Final;

The Seeding Round

The Seeding Round (see image below) is the first competition heat and features 12 three-man man heats, i.e., 36 athletes.

The top two surfers from every heat progress directly to the Round of 32, whereas the surfer with the lowest placement in each heat moves on to the Elimination Round.

But what are the criteria for distributing surfers through the 12 heats?

Can two top surfers in the overall rankings meet in the inaugural stage? How do you set up a fair seeding?

For the seeding calculations, WSL designed a system with two variables:

• Base Seed Points;
• CT Seed Points;

The Base Seed Points apply to the previous season's CT athletes, the wildcards, and the replacements.

They are determined by WSL before the first CT event of the year and have a gap of 40,000 points between the world champion and the 34th-placed surfer.

The world champion gets 60,000 points; the last in the rankings gets 20,000 points.

The gap is determined by the precise percentage difference in rankings. 

For instance, if the 2023 WSL world champion Filipe Toledo holds 60,000 points and Ethan Ewing lagged 19 percent behind him in the previous year's rankings, Ethan will start the 2024 season with 19 percent fewer seeding points than Filipe.

Therefore, the initial seeding reflects each surfer's performance from the preceding year.

Then, all surfers will have 25 percent of those initial Base Seed Points deducted from each of the first four CT events of the season.

As a result, Base Seed Points will be zero from the fifth CT contest onward.

The goal is to reward performance and allow lower-seeded surfers to get rid of their initial handicap, if you will.

CT Seed Points are the sum of the Base Seed Points plus the current CT rankings points earned in the regular season.

The Brackets Formula

How are surfers seeded into the inaugural round?

Before each event, WSL assigns seeding to the surfers within the range of 1 to 36.

Subsequently, these 36 individuals, including the wildcards, are distributed across four brackets.

The initial bracket encompasses seeds 1 to 4, the second bracket consists of seeds 5 to 12, the following bracket includes seeds 13 to 24, and the last one comprises seeds 25-36.

Consequently, a surfer is confined to movement solely within their designated bracket during the competition.

This seeding system allows wildcards and replacements to have a chance to not draw the top surfers again in Round 32, something that happened before 2019.

In the past, a wildcard who beat a top-ranked surfer would have to meet him again in the previously designated Round 3, current Round of 32.

With the new system, a wildcard that wins the Seeding Round will not be up against a top-four athlete in the Round of 32.

In other words, performance and results are rewarded.

First Surfs Against Last

It's important to note that in the opening round, the highest-ranked surfer is seeded with the lowest-ranked athlete plus wildcards, the second-placed surfer is matched against the penultimate-ranked surfer plus a replacement surfer, and so on.

Only the order of heats was reshuffled mainly to avoid overlapping heats with top-seeded surfers who eventually battle in separate heats for the world title.

In Round 32, the competition adopts a horizontal pyramid-style, two-men, single-elimination format in which the winner advances through to the next match-up and the loser is eliminated.

It's important to underline that the Brackets Stage (see image above), from the Round of 32 to the final, splits the leaderboard into two sides (Heats 1-8 and Heats 9-16), meaning that the winner of each side's heat only meets the winner of the other side's heat in the final.

According to WSL, professional surfing's seeding does not follow an automated algorithm. Instead, heat distribution and organization are supervised manually.

The competitive surfing seed formula is not perfect nor always fair, but that's virtually impossible because the weight of the variables at stake is subjective.

For instance, how do you weigh the importance of winning the Challenger Series (CS) against placing last in the top 22 CS rankings?

Who should be seeded above, a 10th-place finishing CT surfer or a runner-up CS campaigner?

Depression Louis brought some of the largest swells of the decade to Portugal, Spain, and France, courtesy of the North Atlantic winter storms.

The extreme weather event raised national alerts and put big-wave surfers on hold on Europe's infamous XXL surf breaks.

Most storm-chasing fraternity converged in Praia do Norte, Nazaré, for another go at the Guinness World Record race.

The Portuguese underwater canyon has been the gold mine of many athletes and media professionals eager to ride and capture the sport's superlative stunts.

The Code Black swell brought a lot of wind, gusts, and heavy rain but also plenty of record-breaking opportunities for the usual suspects.

Three names in particular have been making a living in Nazaré in recent years: Lucas "Chumbo" Chianca, Sebastian Steudtner, and Rodrigo Koxa.

Whenever Praia do Norte fires its most brutal missiles, they're either strapped to their surfboard or towing someone into the massive avalanches of water.

The big wave surfing business has become a niche industry in the once quiet and picturesque fishing village.

Extreme surfers get the most out of the winter season the best way they can - free surfing or competing in events like the Nazaré Big Wave Challenge or the Gigantes de Nazaré.

The former is run by the World Surf League (WSL), and the latter by Brazil's TV Globo.

Gigantes de Nazaré is an invitational event that explores the monetization of online video content and broadcasting to large TV audiences.

A Potential New World Record

On Saturday, February 24, Nazaré witnessed the peak of Depression Louis, with the beach break detonating 80-foot plus (25-meter) walls of water.

Chianca and Steudtner had an informal duel in the heavy waters, with both the Brazilian and the German entertaining the audience at São Miguel Arcanjo fort and on the cliffs with some impressive runs.

They were towed into the biggest waves of the day by Ian Cosenza and Eric Rebiere.

Some say the current 86-foot (26.21 meters) world record wave has been broken, but no one dares to say by whom and on which wave.

The WSL officials will have the last word, using their fine-tuned wave height measuring method.

Once again, the safety rescue teams were busy driving jet skis around massive whitewater and backwash waves and taking their partners out of the impact zone.

The striking 360s and double backflips are becoming the playful standard for foot-strapped surfers descending long liquid slopes.

They're the signature tricks and bonus factor for the patient crowd watch from the safety of terra firma.

But surprises can happen, and throughout the week, as the swell's energy was building, other players emerged confident and audacious.

Lucas Fink, Balaram Stack, Eden Edwards, Alessandra Marinelli, Lourenço Katzenstein, Will Santana, Kalani Lattanzi, Michelle des Bouillons, Gabriel Sampaio, Manuel Fróis, and Vítor Faria also had their share of stoke.

They will definitely keep an eye out for when opportunity knocks.

The quest for the 100-foot wave is a work in progress, one that will require a flawless and rare combination of weather elements to take place.

The 10th edition of La Vaca Gigante has etched its mark in history.

In a stunning display of skill and courage, 24 surfers, both local and international, embraced the formidable Cantabrian waves, reaching heights of over 23 feet (seven meters).

The waves crashed dramatically against the Cantabrian coast, creating an epic day of XXL surfing in Santander.

Ultimately, the day belonged to Indar Unanue, who emerged victorious, shaking the cowbell and hoisting the coveted milk jug that signifies triumph in this prestigious competition.

The day commenced under cloudy skies in Cueto, with minimal wind. The only sound disrupting the silence was the eager anticipation of waves awaiting their moment to shine.

As the tide rose, the La Vaca Gigante 2024 competition kicked off around noon with the trial round. Seven surfers vied for the last coveted spot in the main event.

The action commenced swiftly, featuring impressive waves and powerful surfing, notably by Frenchman Pierre Rollet, who dominated with 24.11 points, securing a spot in the final phase.

With the main event roster finalized, 18 surfers engaged in three heats of six riders each, competing for a prize pool of €10,000.

The audience swelled as spectators gathered at the imposing cliffs, eager to witness a day of electrifying surfing.

The competition format involved 45-minute heats, where surfers aimed to accumulate points from their two best waves, with the better of the two counting double.

The initial rounds showcased local talent, with Nico García and Nano Riego claiming the top two spots in the first round, earning them places in the grand final.

The second round saw a reversal of fortune, with foreign surfers Indar Unanue and Nic Lamb delivering exceptional performances, securing scores of 25.27 and 25.39, respectively.

A Perfect 10

In the third round, local Juan Merodio and Frenchman Pierre Rollet made their mark.

Merodio achieved a perfect score of 10 on his best wave, contributing to a combined score of 26.90.

Rollet, meanwhile, achieved the highest combined score in the qualifying rounds with 28.27 points.

As the final list of contenders for this year's title emerged, approximately 10,000 spectators crowded the cliffs of Cueto, eagerly awaiting the grand finale of La Vaca Gigante 2024.

With six finalists and an hour-long heat in a challenging sea, the riders faced a formidable challenge.

Patience, talent, and wisdom would be the determining factors in the championship's golden round.

Cantabrians Nico García and Nano Riego asserted their local dominance, securing third and second place, respectively, with combined scores exceeding 20 points.

Pierre Rollet, a standout performer, showcased his prowess with a stellar 9.77 score.

However, lacking a second wave, he narrowly missed a podium finish or the chance to challenge the unbeatable Indar Unanue.

Unanue, in a spectacular display, scored two waves above 9 points - 9.67 and 9.93 - accumulating an impressive combined score of 29.53 out of a possible 30.

The Basque surfer's achievements in this 10th edition of La Vaca Gigante are remarkable. After a hiatus from the competition, he clinched victory, having finished as the runner-up three times before.

"The organization has done a great job and has been right with the call for the event because it is a complicated wave to get the timing right," expressed Indar Unanue, the La Vaca Gigante 2024 champion.

"I came wanting to make a final, and I went for it once I saw myself there."

"I was very excited to win the championship because, after several podiums, I was really looking forward to it. Thank you to all the riders, safety patrol, public, and organization staff for making it possible!" 

La Vaca Gigante 2024 | Results

1. Indar Unanue (EUK) 29,53
2. Nano Riego (CAN) 22,21
3. Nicolás García López (CAN) 20,61
4. Pierre Rollet (FRA) 19,54
5. Nic Lamb (USA) 17,99
6. Juan Merodio Velasco (CAN) 2,46

• Best Cantabrian Surfer: Nano Riego
• Best Wipeout: Juan Merodio